Monday, October 20, 2008

Housing Prices to Fall 10% More?

As reported from the Wall Street Journal:

Fitch: Housing Prices Have 10% to Go Before Stabilizing

Fitch Ratings put the housing slump in perspective with a note out today looking at when prices will start to stabilize. Its estimates are based on Case-Shiller housing data and assume a rate of inflation of 3%:

"Fitch's analysis shows that the 29% rise in prices realized between 2004 and 2006, representing one of the largest price growth periods ever recorded, has been reversed. With prices returning to early 2004 levels, Fitch believes that most of the additional 10% decline, which will bring prices back to levels seen in 2003, will occur over the next eighteen months. Fitch then expects declines thereafter to moderate."

A loss of an additional 10% over the next 18 months could be considered a positive since housing prices have been dropping sharply and quickly in many markets. The obvious negative, another 10% loss ... wow. When will this end?

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